year after year. we are still spending more than we take in year after year. is that really america getting serious about our fiscal mess? hardly. as the marriott ceo said both parties have to own the difficult job of telling the american people they are going to pay more and get less. that is the reality. we will find out if we have any real leaders. that will do it for us. have a great night. "fast money" begins right now. three politicians bickering. >> it will not be an agreement without rates going up. >> we are nowhere. >> screaming. >> in 20 years they will not remember the nuances. >> once dancing carl. and five on "fast money."

will the cliff kill christmas? we answer that tonight. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. first taxes don't data. what about taxes. his take on the cliff hanger and why investors shouldn't worry about taxes. and dell trade or trap? goldman jumps on the band wagon. 2012 gold rush. why are americans stocking up on gold coins? is it another way to say diversify? we have to get straight to our top story and tonight that is will the cliff ruin christmas? the rhetoric cnbc has the latest including the white house response to the gop proposal.

>> just within the past few minutes we have gotten the white house's response to the boehner counter proposal to the white house proposal last week. the white house doesn't like the proposal from bane kpp today. dan fifer saying the republican la letter does not meet the balance and sticks the middle class with the bill. clearly what we are seeing is a negotiation. the white house doesn't like what they have been presented and now the offers and counteroffers will continue to fly and will start to get a little more close to one another. neither one of these as they have been laid out is anywhere near where people expect we will end up for a final deal. >> what is your interpretation and analysis of the white house's responses? it sounds like a hard line stance. >> absolutely. the white house says it doesn't

meet the test of balance and the president says the most important thing is that we have a balanced approach. he says that in every speech he has made so far. there you see the obama offer in terms of what he has put on the table. he would like to see a bunch of new taxes particularly tax 92 creases, $960 billion and the key here is that what the president has offered in all told is $1.6 trillion in new tax revenues and what the speaker countered with today was $800 billion. you can see how far apart the two men are. there is a lot of negotiating to be done between here and there. >> what is your guesstimate on a counter? >> i think we have a counter at some point in the next couple of days. where they go in terms of those numbers i don't know because this would be the first time that either party has to move far off of its talking points. both parties made offers that are basically what the talking

points are. now we get to the nitty-gritty. who is willing to show a little leg and compromise. >> quite a metaphor. >> whoa! >> you show a little leg. >> rise above, show a little leg. it's all the same. thank you. >> poor guy he is doing a serious report -- >> and then you guys chime in. >> the "fast money" hounds. >> somebody has to show a little leg. these are basically the talking points. >> but the whole idea is we have talking points. gdp will be hit.

taxes raised on the 2%. it is not if gdp will be hit but by how much. it is probably a quarter percentage point. that is huge considering where gdp is now. we can make the fiscal cliff issue go away if he says let's extend the tax cuts for everybody. it is going to be a patchwork. it is not a permanent deal. just do it and talk about it. >> despite the concerns about going over the cliff we should let you know that december is actually a winning month for stocks. stocks are up 2% on average in december since 1990 with utilities and industrials leading the gain. should you be betting with history or maybe this time is different? the data mattas. they have a 2.8% gain in the month of december. >> what happened last year? last year we were dealing with europe was the front part of

this burner of policy. the esm was established. it looked like we were in a place where we could get systemic risk off the table. markets were facing heavy flows of deleveraging. i think the fiscal cliff we are spending a lot of time on and we will continue to see deleveraging of trades that have worked because of all of the tax implications. i don't think you can be sure this is the same santa claus rally that you want to blindly buy. last year was very painful to people who thought fundamentals would win out. you ran into deleveraging flows that were related to policy. if you don't think we are not going to have policy issues through the end of the year you are crazy. >> i think we all do the same, i believe that you can time the market and pick stocks. i know people believe that. it is interesting that today we talked about ranges in the s&p. i think we have done a good job.

look at where we traded up to that 1425 that we have talked about being resistance number of times. i don't want to make a big deal out of this. today was an outside day from friday's range the low, lower than friday's low. it has been in a very defined range. i think we traded towards the upper end and i think we are heading twarts the 1375 and 1380 level again. you trade that range until further notice. it could go up 2% in the month of december. >> and the guys that say levels don't matta -- >> or matter. >> 1420 is your 50-day moving average. 1409 is your 100-day moving average. 1385 is your 200-day. we are stopping on the dime. no one has an idea what policy will take what shape. you have to know your levels and set your buys and sells.

>> we took a look at the best performing sectors. you take a look at the worst performing it is technology. it only outperforms the market 38.4% of the time. very small. >> i think what i'm looking at and most focused on has definitely been in the financials. when i look at them and i watch the way they have been trading between the 50 and the 200-day. i think with the s&p on the upper side you can see right in the financials. they seem to fail at the 50 day and pull back towards the 1511 area. i think if you are looking at the financials and the broader market, the s&p 500 that is the area to look at. pharmaceuticals and utilities on the down days those names i think are a great opportunity. they are back up on the upswing right now. i think on any selloff i would be a buyer. >> we are all in fiscal cliff hanger mode.

are the tax fears overblown on this? a lot of investors are making the case that taxes are going up. according to recent commentary in the "new york times" our next guest says investors should relax. joining us is founder of sea breeze partners. let's get into the nuances of this year. the fears may be overblown. can you see that there will be an impact on the markets? >> i think the impact is less than 1%. i don't believe that either the tax or the fiscal cliff are the cliffs that we should be fretting about. we should be fretting about the earnings cliff. >> at the same time you make the case that investors won't be impacted in terms of behavior because of taxes. historical studies have shown this and shown that companies won't change the way they will treat cash and dividend payoffs. we have seen oracle accelerating. we are seeing an impact on

behavior here that goes in the face of what has historically been thrown. >> let me explain it shortly. the government has tried to keep the capital gains and the dividend tax rate basically the same. let's assume they go from 15% to 25%. that means that on capital gains and dividends instead of retaining 85 cents of every dollar you sell you retain only 75 cents. in theory if all investors are taxable tax should decline. we have to remember that only about 20% or 25% of trading is in taxable accounts and that is going down. if you militaryple 1/5 times that 13% we have to reduce it further because most individual taxable investors have long

holding periods and most would prefer not to sell it out and not incur any tax. many investors don't have capital gains and the distribution is probably uneven. for example the original investors at facebook have a humongous decision to make not necessarily guys like myself. the calculation also assumes that everyone has an equal level of sophistication and we know that is not true. i would bet that 50% to 75% of people that own stocks in this country don't know that tax rates are rising. >> it's tim. >> grasso turns into a frog after 5:00. >> you're a guy who loves fundamentals first and foremost. some of the things you were talking about kind of border between technicals and

fundamentals. tax rates are a fundamental phenomenon. i look at today's ism and i say this is having an impact. this is an implicit tax on corporate america. the growth of next year is being stymied and stifled right now. >> let me tell you the risk to the bears that are short. the business sector is where the housing and automobile sector was 12 or 15 months ago pent up not spent up. if you look at the ism number, for example, it is interesting to note the mentality of this risk off situation in the business sector. look at the inventory policy. it was a humongous drop in inventory both at the manufacturers and customers inventory level. if you get a grand fiscal bargain which i believe is a 50/50 chance this shows a lift

of production from inventory building in the first half of the year. it reminds me again of remember how bullish you and i were in housing and autos a year ago. i can actually see an economic growth scare by the second quarter of next year if we resolve the cliff. >> you said the impact of the market is less than 1%. is that less than 1% we have seen or to be seen? >> i think less than 1% means that the impact of a rise in dividend and capital gains taxes are simply noise. >> always great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me. >> do you buy what he is selling? >> ion't for a simple reason that he says that much of what goes on in the stock market is in tax free accounts. i don't think that is true. maybe tax deferred accounts.

you may not pay it this year but you are going to pay it eventually. if taxes in general go up then people are going to pay more. you will end up paying about 1/8 of what you would have collected in additional taxes. so i think it has a much bigger impact on the stock market here than doug does. if there is a cliff then we are really worried about it is the earnings cliff. before we got really wrapped up in the election we were wringing our hands on how the earnings season was not coming out very well. i think when we start paying attention to earnings again it will be a problem. >> coming up next is dell really a buy? our traders will make the call on whether this beaten down tech stock is back from the brink. it could be called the ultimate fiscal cliff trade. find out which investment americans are pouring into. much more straight ahead.

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welcome back to "fast money." oracle the latest company making a tax dividend. going to pay out a total of more than $850 million on the friday before christmas. the board noting that ceo as the largest share holder was not involved in the discussion or the vote. 18 cents per 1.1 million shares enough to take a nice stake in a basketball team perhaps. >> for instance maybe. we have been talking about companies likely to pay a special dividend or move them up. i would argue that it is in line

with share holder interest. >> i think it makes sense. the only problem i have is the poor people who are chasing this after it has been announced. i think you would already want to be in there. when you are looking at these companies you want to see who has the great cash positions and who looks like they will be allocating the cash out. i think there is a lot in the retail space that still exist. i was looking at names like bed bath and beyond. they have great cash, great flows and it would seem like that would fall into it. >> you are saying yes. >> i am not in it yet. >> even when you chase a lot of these trades you can still make money. i chased it with cost co and made money. they announced a 7% special div. i made a little over 3%. you can make it after it is announced. >> as long as you like the company. >> you have to be on the fundamentals of the company.

>> shares of dell getting a much needed boost today recording its third best day of the week. goldman calling the pc maker an attractive deep value play. deep if you take a look at the decline that the stock has seen. so pete what do you say? >> as far as dell? i think this dell company is very interesting. joe was talking about this for a while. i think goldman sachs makes a lot of interesting points. it is interesting that they mention about the rest of it. i think when you look at the company it is about the servers and what they are doing as a company itself. they obviously have an unbelievable cash position. there is a lot of reasons to be intrigued. i was intrigued by hewlett-packard not long ago for all the same reasons. >> i'm with pete on this one. i think hewlett-packard is the more interesting trade. i think november 20th to me was

the capitulation that we talk about. had a monster volume day. that is for a trade, doesn't mean the company is fixed but i think the stock is interesting. >> with dell you have a company that feels like the ship is still sinking. they are a fantastic low cost producing. this isn't enough. i think windows 8 is a major head wind and this is holding back the pc world. >> you don't like any of them? >> in dell's case they have proven that they are too reliant. and i think they have been a little late to make that move. >> let's hit pops and drops and movers you might have missed. we kick it off with a drop for netflix. >> the journal article and it has done everything we said it would do including trading up to 84 and failing. the next piece of news. i look to buy this one a little

lower. >> pop for verisign. when you look at some of these names and you see the big flush day we had the flush day just this past friday where over 45 million shares traded. this is just a pop off of that right now. i don't think you have to chase it. >> new mont a drop today. >> this is a story that is company specific changing management. this is a problem management changes and coal producers are keeping the stocks down at a time when costs are rising faster than the cost of gold. gold miners i don't need to buy out of here. >> jc penney down 3%. >> the street is getting impatient with this turn around story. i like the price per square foot. do they run out of money before they renovate the rest of the stores. it is tradeable but it is popped pretty significantly.

>> pop for hca up 1%. >> tiz the season. company announced a $2 special dividend today. the problem here is that they are paying up to borrow the money. i think they are getting caught up in the special dividend fiasco. >> and we get a drop for justin bieber. he definitely has a lot going for him. one thing he doesn't have is a working knowledge of america's banking institution. the new york post reports bieber and his crew were playing ping-pong at a club and asked to leave because jp morgan had the room. he says why does he get the room and not us. >> can he drive? >> he drives something. >> you have been to spin in new york? the ping-pong club. >> you have. >> is that where we had the "fast money" party?

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fast or fiction. >> love this game. >> the face of chinese manufacturing picking up the first time in 13 months. it rose one point to 50.5 in november. china has experienced slowing growth over the past seven quarters. fast or fiction the chinese economy is picking up at this point. tim, what do you say to this? >> fast. >> fact. >> i'm going to call this a fast because i do agree that they have turned the corner on the industrial side and the manufacturing side and the consumer side. housing prices have ticked up. our friend dave does a consumer survey that i think is very accurate and it goes to the more

organic growth side and i think the consumer has turned. remember the shanghai comp is not the chinese economy. if you look at technical indicators there are guying screening the table. i do think china looks very interesting for a lot of people. >> i think people at home are going to start thinking to themselves what happened to yum brands. >> so did tiffany. >> why the disconnect here? >> you have to understand that yum has a couple of specific issues. yum is not the only guy out there. >> it is the biggest guy out there. >> i think when you have competition and their comps were significantly high and this is one of the head winds for them their comps are too good and i don't think they will grow 50%. they are a luxury brand producer going after a sector of the market that is unsustainable. if you look at the chinese consumer they are not buying

tiffany watches and eating at yum. it is a consumption story that is slowly getting better. >> is it time for a final trade? >> you asked me and i'm delivering. >> you bring it. you always bring it. mieving on here. americans are piling into u.s. gold coins in record numbers. november sales more than tripling hitting the strongest levels since 1998. as you can see in the start qe 3 and president obama's reelection are two of the biggest drivers. can gold coins be the ultimate. let's bring in dennis gartman who joins us on the fast line. always grade to speak with you. >> always good to be spoken with. >> that's what i'm talking about. we are entering a seasonally strong period already. just a seasonal uptick.

>> we have had the indian wedding season pass us up. i think you have the public piling into gold which happens. and we have to be careful because when the public comes into something the pros think that is the end of the move. the last time we saw gold coin sales of this consequence was in 2008 and gold moved from $900 an ounce to $1,700 an ounce. i will council people to be careful when buying gold coins because the markup on gold coins can be preposterous, stupid, egregious, silly. >> like what? i don't know how much these things weigh. how much is it on top of per ounce what the spot rate would be? >> it depends on which coin but you can pay 30% to 40% if you are taken. it should be like 2%. it is astonishing when you go to your local coin dealer you are

going to get taken. there are plenty of places to go where the markup is much smaller. be careful. but the public is coming in. when you hear that the public is buying our propencity is to think that is the top. in this instance the last time this happened gold took off and didn't top out. >> that was going to be mine -- >> this could be a tell in the other direction. let's just talk again quickly. gold seems to be flat lining for quite some time now. is this the level for which it makes the next step up to 2,500? what do you think would be the catalyst? >> i think thet catalyst will be continued expansion of the aggregates not necessarily here in the united states. the bankers in the ecb are not going to like it but they have no choice but to expand.

we already have the bank of japan being told to advance the supply of japanese yen in an unlimited fashion. that's clearly going to happen. so and the chinese and turning around and they are going to expand their reserves. what you are seeing is a movement in that fashion. and here in the united states whether we like it or not or talked about it way too much the goal over the cliff is certainly causing people to be disconcerted and disconsertion causes people to buy gold. >> see you tomorrow. >> see you tomorrow. would you buy? you have four kids. would you buy them a share each or buy them an american eagleal? >> i think gold coins are being bought. i want to ask dennis this because he is the professional at this. >> he may not be with us anymore. >> that is why i am going to ask melissa now.

i don't think the irs tracks gold coin sales. so you go in and walk in. you walk in with your money. i don't know if they track. >> that is the left side of the desk messing with the irs. that is nothing to do with -- >> i don't have the gold coins. >> you would pay taxes on a gain even if you didn't have to. >> that's what i'm talking about. >> audit for grasso. sometimes our traders hit it out of the park and sometimes they swing and miss. let's play the good, the bad and the ugly. >> never ugly. >> first the good a couple of weeks back pete was singing the praises of lowe's. >> got all of these shares that they have to implement. there are different catalysts. they have the little bit of weakness in same store sales

recently but i think that is an aberration of how the cycles go up and down. i think this name has a lot more room. >> he was right on the money. the stock is up 17% since then. what do you do here? >> i think you can hold on. i like the drerivative plays. i think the reason lowe's stuck out is because i think you are going to get the beta trade which will move up at the faster pace. . on to the bad. also a few weeks back pete wasn't impressed with deckers earnings. take a listen. >> tom brady can't hold the stock up anymore. 33% below what they had previously. people expected 9% to 10%. it is 33%. that is a bad thing. i would stay away from this name. >> it is the same outfit. >> i'm color blind. i wear a green shirt i have to

wear the same tie. >> look at the chart. quite a run since pete's call. what happened? >> this is a name i didn't want to short it but i didn't see anything for the upside because oaf what they told us. over the last week and a half this stock has started to move to the upside. i like the story. a lot of it had to do with the cost. the margins were coming down. i stayed away with it for that reason. i missed this move. >> whenever you mention sheepskin he giggles. >> what is the name of this segment that we do? >> the good, the bad and the ugly. >> what is our ugly. >> the ugly is -- >> wow! >> that is something special. >> octopus on my face. >> that is ugly. >> looks like pirates of caribbean. >> seriously.

i don't think that is funny. >> it was supposed to be ugly which it was. coming up next how companies are setting up to reward share holders next year and how you can take advantage right now. later on in the new year without these stocks we will head to the twitter sphere to tell you which to leave behind in 2012.

welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york city. the special dividend surge continues to grow. 98 special dividends announced this quarter totaling nearly $23 billion. three of those announced today. will 2013 be the year of stock dividends instead of cash ones and maybe buy backs, too. joining us is don yackman. >> we have seen the threat of higher taxes change the way companies behave and manage their cash. you think that next year we'll see this in a different way.

no more cash dividends. >> well, i'm hopeful that the ceos and boards are rational and eliminate cash dividends based on tax rates going from 15% to 43.6% and that is before new york and california get their share which would push people over 50%. >> in terms of companies that may proceed and do this do you think it is the same pool of companies that have issued special dividends this year, ones that are concerned about the tax issue? >> i think they are showing the leadership. i mean, if you look at like some of the people that are very respected, warren buffett hasn't paid a dividend in a long time. his side kick just had cost co pay a $7 dividend with borrowed money. special dividend. i think a way to wean people off

of cash dividends would be exactly to do what costco did and that is pay next four year's dividends up front and say you have gotten it. and then they won't have to come back with cash dividends in the future. >> do you prefer a company use their cash and just forget the tax issue? is it better for a company to buy back shares as opposed to issue dividends? >> yes. there is no question that from a tax efficiency standpoint that share buybacks are more efficient because not only do you avoid the tax on the dividends but the tax if you have a capital gain is only going to be on the part above your cost basis. so very few people have zero cost basis. so the tax will be very small. >> but the impplication of buy backs is that you are increasing the value per share therefore

taking up the stock price. whenever i sell that i am still going to get hit with capital gains or ordinary income. i don't see why it matters. >> again like i said you won't pay a tax on all of the cash you receive. if you were to make a small tender offer across the board say the same rate as a dividend and everybody took it that would be the effect, the same thing as having a dividend but taxed at a much lower rate. >> we are going to leave it there. great to speak with you. >> okay. thank you. >> you follow him on twitter? >> you have to. >> not the ugly brokers. is that your subconscious speaking? >> reform broker. >> the ugly broker is some other guy. he had a term for dividends. cliffed ends.

>> i like that. >> a copy right. speaking of the fiscal cliff we have breaking news in d.c. >> show a little leg, baby. >> i am not going to use expressions. we have a response. when speaker john boehner put out his counteroffer and said he was -- here is bowles saying he doesn't want his name on john boehner's proposal. the approach does not represent the simpson-bowles plan. i took the mid point of the public offers to demonstrate where i thought a deal could be reached at that time and says times have changed since then and it is up to negotiators to find out where the mid point is

today. it is no longer operative apparently. getting back to potential cliffedend. you saw a big bet on microsoft today. >> great news for dell and should be good news for microsoft. we saw somebody buy 3,000 of the jan 28 calls. means the break even is about 28.31. they think the stock will get back to the 29 to 33 range where it has been. >> it is time to visit jane for the look of what is up next. >> guys, they estimate $1 billion worth of goods move through every day but right now we have a whole lot of nothing going on. they are negotiating in a building over there they don't want us to show you. we will have the latest after the break. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming

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from mobile devices to medical marijuana we have you covered in the west coast wrap from the port of l.a. in long beach with the latest on the

strike. >> there is really only one story going on here right now and it is the strike. we are told the mayor is flying back from columbia to get down here to negotiations. we just talked to the head of the union and he says they are in this for the long haul. the unions say it is not about the money because the money is good. this is about job security. you are looking at a ship that has been sitting there since wednesday. it is filled not just with retail goods but a lot are parts, stuff that is needed now. >> it ripples through the supply chain. if the docks are not working and are not unloading cargo then the truckers are not working. it is going to get to the point where stores are going to be looking for their shipments and they are not getting them. after a week things are -- people are going to start noticing. >> now about a dozen ships have been diverted to other ports,

most to mexico but other ships are waiting it out. if ships aren't offloaded exporters can't reload them with american goods. >> now the railroads are embargoing all of that cargo coming into these destinations so they are not taking the loads in chicago and st. louis and memphis. they are turning customers away at those destinations. >> these port administrators aren't management. the shipping companies are. the shipping companies have offered these clerical workers compensation packages with a total of $195,000 a year, up to 11 weeks worth of days off and guaranteed job security. what they won't do is when the union workers are out be forced to fill the jobs with other union workers. what the union is saying that management is trying to do death by a thousand cuts and outsource

one job at a time. >> if these ships go to a port like in mexico then how do the goods get from mexico to the u.s.? does that get joined by a trucking company or railroad? >> yes. both. but mostly by trucks. it will take longer and cost more. they can go north to oakland. the difference between this and the 2002 strike is you had the entire west coast of the united states the ports shut down. this is the biggest port in the country and the third largest in the world. there are alternatives. of course, the fear for people running these ports is once you get used to going oakland or mexico it is like what do i need to go to l.a. for? >> jane wells joining us from the port of l.a. long beach. >> jane getting it done. kansas city that report mentioned railroads. this is the stock we mentioned a number of times and had a tremendous run up to 84 and pulled back and another run up

to 84 and pulled back. we are in the midst of that now. if this trades back down to 74.5 and 75 that is the level to buy. >> they have more south lines. >> these guys are huge. that is definitely a great call. the other part is retailers. the impact on this will be talk about 1,000 cuts. these guys will probably feel this for six months. this is what you saw from the strike of 2002. throughout the chain it's going to happen. coming up next the trades you should toss out of your portfolio before 2013. we are checking twitter to help you set up for the new year. stick with us. twins. i didn't see them coming. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock.

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that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.

let's bring in a special twitter report. >> so rather than looking at stocks that were trending today we zero in on a particular hash tag leave it in 2012 things you want to say good bye to by year end. some say skinny jeans. another mentioned gangnam style. we took it upon our styles to ask traders what stocks you want to leave behind.

steve says for year end i have been selling off shares of general laelectric. cheryl tweeted sprint. and mighty mouth said i sold most of my big dividend payers a few weeks ago. ge is one of the dividend paying stocks. >> i think that pete is more of a gangnam style dancer. >> every night of the week. >> skinny jeans while dancing gangnam style. let's go around. what is your leave it in 2012? >> i never understood this story. it has a $175 billion market cap. for all of the variety of reasons that i never understood this particular social gaming site i think it will go lower. >> when you say leave it in 2012

you mean you could short the stock with this decline? >> yeah. and there are shorts in the stock. >> intel. i think pete may be out of the need. the chart is terrible. i liked it for a brief couple of months. pc market still questioning intel. >> amazon, the margins are microscopic. you have to make money and generate profits. this is not one i would short. >> gm real quick. a monster move from july. you might want to say it was a storm. i think gm you get out of right here. >> thank you. tsl. the solar panel manufacturers are running into ridiculous lack of discipline on supply. margins are razor thin. shale gas and nat gas and plenty of other alternatives. >> does that make them regular?

>> double negatives? i guess so. we will continue to bring you more leave it in 2012 ideas tomorrow starting at noon eastern. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.

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